In the midst of the market turbulence, it is worthwhile to step back and consider the words of someone who has experianced several market cycles. The following thoughts (which are posted elsewhere on the web as well ) are Bob Farrell’s 10 Market Rules to Remember. He spent several decades at Merrill Lynch as a market strategist before retiring in 1992.
1) Markets tend to return to the mean over time.
2) Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.
3) There are no new eras – excesses are never permanent.
4) Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways.
5) The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom.
6) Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve.
7) Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue chip names.
8) Bear markets have three stages – sharp down – reflexive rebound – a drawn-out fundamental downtrend.
9) When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen.
10) Bull markets are more fun than bear markets.